I scored every 2026 Boston Marathon qualifying standard against the bracket's world record, an averaged top three and WMA age grading. Men and women are asked for the same mean effort (Welch t-test, p = 0.81). The women's standards are spread about 3.5 times as widely (CV 6.6% against 1.9%), and W80+ is the strictest bracket in the table by a wide margin.
World-record framework, from outputs/analysis_results.csv
| Pl. | Bracket | Category | 2026 BQ | × WR | Uniform BQ | Min off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | W80+ | Women | 5:20:00 | 1.271 | 6:17:20 | −57.3 |
| 2 | W70–74 | Women | 4:50:00 | 1.416 | 5:06:58 | −17.0 |
| 3 | W75–79 | Women | 5:05:00 | 1.429 | 5:19:56 | −14.9 |
| 4 | M50–54 | Men | 3:20:00 | 1.434 | 3:29:04 | −9.1 |
| 5 | W55–59 | Women | 4:00:00 | 1.451 | 4:07:59 | −8.0 |
| 6 | M55–59 | Men | 3:30:00 | 1.457 | 3:35:58 | −6.0 |
| 7 | M18–34 | Men | 2:55:00 | 1.464 | 2:59:07 | −4.1 |
| 8 | M80+ | Men | 4:50:00 | 1.480 | 4:53:38 | −3.6 |
| 9 | M75–79 | Men | 4:35:00 | 1.487 | 4:37:07 | −2.1 |
| 10 | M70–74 | Men | 4:20:00 | 1.492 | 4:21:17 | −1.3 |
| 11 | M40–44 | Men | 3:05:00 | 1.489 | 3:06:14 | −1.2 |
| 12 | M35–39 | Men | 3:00:00 | 1.506 | 2:59:07 | +0.9 |
| 13 | M45–49 | Men | 3:15:00 | 1.509 | 3:13:39 | +1.3 |
| 14 | W40–44 | Women | 3:35:00 | 1.509 | 3:33:31 | +1.5 |
| 15 | M65–69 | Men | 4:05:00 | 1.513 | 4:02:44 | +2.3 |
| 16 | W50–54 | Women | 3:50:00 | 1.522 | 3:46:27 | +3.5 |
| 17 | M60–64 | Men | 3:50:00 | 1.533 | 3:44:53 | +5.1 |
| 18 | W60–64 | Women | 4:20:00 | 1.532 | 4:14:23 | +5.6 |
| 19 | W65–69 | Women | 4:35:00 | 1.535 | 4:28:27 | +6.5 |
| 20 | W18–34 | Women | 3:25:00 | 1.578 | 3:14:45 | +10.2 |
| 21 | W45–49 | Women | 3:45:00 | 1.589 | 3:32:11 | +12.8 |
| 22 | W35–39 | Women | 3:30:00 | 1.616 | 3:14:45 | +15.2 |
× WR is the standard divided by the bracket's world record. Uniform BQ applies the median multiplier (1.50×) to every bracket. Min off is the current standard minus the uniform one: negative means the current standard is stricter. Under age grading W80+ comes out 56 minutes strict.
The women's open record used for 18-34 and 35-39 is Ruth Chepngetich's 2:09:56 (Chicago 2024). Chepngetich is serving a three-year ban, announced by the Athletics Integrity Unit on 23 October 2025, after a positive test for the diuretic hydrochlorothiazide on 14 March 2025; the AIU said her records from before that test stand while it looks into other material from her phone, and the World Athletics all-time list still puts 2:09:56 first (checked 28 October 2026).
The BAA has never published how it sets these times, so fairness has to be measured against a reference. Each framework asks whether every bracket sits the same distance from its reference. A Welch t-test compares the gender means; Levene's test and the coefficient of variation compare the spread (Levene p = 0.036).
The variance gap holds under all three frameworks and under alternative reference records. Dropping W80+ alone cuts the women's CV from 6.6% to 4.5%. The 2026 cut of five minutes for everyone under 60 left the pattern in place and made the step at age 60 grow from 15 to 20 minutes.